A similar kind of weekend

Last weekend was much like the previous one, with a couple of winning bets but Liverpool again disappointing. At Cheltenham, while Poquelin and Zaynar did win there was a surprise result in the big hurlde race where Khyber Kim beat Celestial Halo.  Of course, I didn’t back any of them. The one horse I did back was Boychuk at Doncaster. And he ran well and just stayed on to pip That’s Rhythm for third place. I backed him 80/20 (2 euro to win at 12.5 and 8 to place at 4.1), so third place, so I made 21.56 after the 5% commission deduction. That’s what my betting is about, small and steady, try to come out on the right side.

The soccer bets were 1 winner and 1 loser. Man City might have quality but theyhave not been winning as many games as they should. as it turned out they did ok to get a draw. Down 3-2 they had Bellamy wrongly sent off. He was given a second yellow card for a dive, but viewed in replay it was clear he was tripped. I am all for booking players who dive and while I have sympathy for Bellamy and City, they can blame the referee, but they should also blame all the players who have tried to cod the officials. As you sow, so shall you reap. If players played the game fair, then refereeing would be easier. As it is, it is very hard to decide what is a foul and what is a dive. Hopefully, Bellamy will be cleared by a review of the incident, but there should be an immediate review and City would not have been down a man.And, if a player can be cleared by a review panel, the same review panel should be able to punish, through If Man City let us down, at least Birmingham City didn’t. One Lee Bowyer goal was enough to beat West Ham and put us up 1.30 on the 2 soccer bets.

Rafa Under Pressure

Liverpool, of course, did let me down again. It’s been a miserable season for the Reds and there is no sign of getting any better. I would generally be one for supporting the manager, let’s face it he has to know more about what is going on than someone like me who only watches occasionally, but Rafa has to be under pressure. He just seems to be so stubborn. Once he makes up his mind there seems to be no changing it. No matter how Lucas plays, it seems Rafa has decided he will be part of the first 11. Surely, if Aquilani was worth 20 million, then he has to be put in the team and let’s see what he can do. And it seems that Mascherano’s days are numbered. Like a lot of players over the last 3 or 4 years, it appears he has fallen out of favour and the only way is out! We have Wigan at home on Wednesday. Wigan are very unpredicatable this year. They can beat Chelsea and can lose 9-1 to Spurs. Let’s hope they hit an off day on Wednesday. Liverpool need a break!

The latest on the betting account is, this Weekend : Up 22.86   and Overall : Up 57.93

TJI Friday Dec 11th

Garde Champetre did the business at Cheltenham again today. At 9/4 too. I was on. Just sorry I didn’t post it, so I can’t count it for the TJI running total.

For tomorrow, I expect Celestial Halo and Zaynar will win the two big hurdle races, but at odds on, I won’t a backer nor a layer be. The Boylesports.com handicap chase is very open but favourite Poquelin, only up 1lb for his second in the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham last month, has a lot going for him. I spent a bit of time looking at the 3m Handicap Chase, the last race on the card at Doncaster, and I reckon the most likely winners are That’s Rhythm, Boychuk and Craiglands. I will probably just back Boychuk for a place or maybe 80/20 (8 place and 2 win). Will look and see what price I can get in the morning. I would be looking to get about 3.5 to 4.0 (5/2 to 3/1 in the old fractional odds). Sizing Mexico is an interesting runner in the bumper at Fairyhouse tomorrow, but he will likely be favourite at a price that will make him a horse to watch rather than one to back.

For football bets, I reckon the teams to be on are Birmingham at home to West Ham and Man City away to Bolton. Birmingham have a good defensive record, unlike West Ham, and are on a run of 6 games unbeaten. They should be able to get a goal or two, and a win, against the Hammers. Bolton are struggling with just one point from their last 5 games and have sunk to second last in the table, and City are obviously a good team. We know they have quality, as Rafa would say. Birmingham at 2.19 and Man City at 1.88 look good to me.

For Liverpool, it’s another weekend of hoping for the best. It has been a fairly horrible season so far. Already out of the Champions League and, it looks like, out of the runnign for the Premier League. The worst of it is that performances have been very poor. We have largely got what we deserve. The positives are that we have the Europa Cup as a fallback and we did beat Man United. For Sunday, we should have Aquilani, Gerrard and Torres, so we will see what we are made of. We could do with a win and the very least a draw. Otherwise a top 4 finish will start to fade from view.

Bets for tomorrow : Birmingham and Man City to win and Boychuk.

Mick Kinane retires

Mick Kinane on board Sea The Stars

Mick Kinane announced his retirement yesterday after a 34 year career as a jockey. His record marks him out as a great jockey. The list of races he has won include 3 English Derbys, 7 other English classics, 14 Irish classics, 7 Irish Champion Stakes, 6 St. James’s Palace Stakes, as well as a Melbourne Cup, Belmont Stakes, Japan Cup and 3 Arc de Triomphe’s. He won a total of 117 Group 1’s, including every existing Irish Group 1 race. The list of horses he has won on is also hugely impressive including Carroll House, Montjeu, Giant’s Causeway, Galileo, Rock Of Gibraltar, High Chaparral, Azamour, George Washington and Sea The Stars. He rated Sea The Stars as the greatest he had ridden and said his decision to retire now was decided by a wish to go out at the top. With memories of Sea The Stars campaign fresh, he certainly does go out at the top.

It has ben said that he is the greatest Irish jockey flat race ever and, on his record, he definitely has claims to that, but there is also a case for Kieren Fallon. Those kind of debates can not be settled conclusively anyway, so let’s just say Kinane was recognised worldwide as a top class jockey and salute hime for that. Sure he made mistakes, notably on Giant’s Causeway and Rock Of Gibraltar in Breeder’s Cup races but more often than not he got it right on the big day. And I salute him for his longeivity. There is no way he could have continued at the top, riding lots of the best horses around, if he wasn’t at the top of his game. He was still at the top last year, aged 50. Fair play, Mick.

A Good Weekend

It was a good winning weekend with 4 wins from 5 bets. A lay of  Big Zeb proved the right thing to do. He once again showed his frailty at the top level. Unfortunately, though, I picked the wrong horse to back. Well Chief ran poorly and it was Twist Magic that won the race. He seems to be back to his best and although he still would not be a backing proposition for Cheltenham (he just does not seem to like the course), he definitely would be at Aintree or possibly Punchestown.

The bet on Synchronised was a good winner. A fiver at 6.4, his SP was 7/2, yielded a gain of 25.65 and put us properly ahead for the first time since I started this blog. Hooray! And the 2 football bets came in too. Burnley’s away form continued to be bad and Postsmouth, despite missing a penalty won 2-0. And Chelsea didn’t win at Man City. In hindsight, I should have kept it simple and having said that 7/2 was too big about a home win, I should have done that bet. But my usual caution intervened. If Lampard had converted that late penalty then I’d be thinking I was spot on to lay Chelsea. Anyway, it was a winning bet and at the end of the day, as they say, the score was :

Weekend: Up 38.74  Overall:  Up 35.07

After the success on Saturday I was tempted to back Aran Concerto in the Durkan Chase at Punchestown, but thinking about it, I stuck to my usual policy of being wary of horses not proven at a particular level. Aran Concerto was a very good novice and was then injured. He seems to have come back well, but this was still a step up. in the event, Aran Concerto disappointed and Joncol ran a good race to win. Joncol is a horse to keep an eye on for the reat of the season.

Unfortunately, while it was a good weekend for betting, Liverpool were poor again. A 0-0 draw of few chances against Blackburn and down to 7th in the league is not where we had hoped to be at. Torres is a great striker, but why is there no backup to him? I can’t understand why we ever got rid of Peter Crouch and Robbie Keane was not given a proper chance. I recently turned the page to December on my official LFC calendar and who is on it only the bold Robbie Keane. Seems like more than 12 months ago, Robbie.

The only live action I saw was the Munster Club Football Final between Kilmurry-Ibrickane and Kerins O’ Rahillys. A poor game, although they did have the excuse of wintry conditions, but it was close enough to make it exciting. And the lads from West Clare won’t mind about the opinions of neutrals watching on TG4. They were plainly very excited by their win. And fair play. That’s what the club championships are about. The glory of the parish.

TJI Friday Dec 4th

Well, the World Cup draw was held without us and England and France duly got good draws. If we had got past France, we could have been in with hosts South Africa, Mexico (remember Aldridge in 94 and all that) and Uruguay. Oh well. Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast and poor old North Korea looks the toughest group.

For tomorrow’s racing I have backed Well Chief at 4.3, laid Big Zeb at 2.88 and backed Synchronised at 6.4 in a novice chase at Chepstow 1.05.

And I have done 2 bets for tomorrow’s soccer. I think Man City are a very big price at 7/2 to win at home to Chelsea, so I have laid Chelsea at 1.93. That gives me better than evens about a home win or a draw. And I have backed Portsmouth at 1.9 to win at home to Burnley. I think Portsmouth are better than their league position suggests, but I am a bit wary of the truism about there usually being a good reason why some horses seem to find trouble in running. Applying that to football, there may well be a good reason why Pompey are where they are.

Go on the Chief…

Tingle Creek Preview

This week’s big race is the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown on Saturday. A Grade 1 2m chase, probably my favourite type of race. There is a small field, but there is enough quality there to make it a more than interesting renewal. All bar Mahogany Blaze have won at Grade One level, Well Chief and Forpadydeplasterer are former Arkle winners and Twist Magic has won this race 2 years ago.

No.	Form	Horse	Days	Age	Weight	Trainer	Odds
1	FF1-21	Big Zeb	27	8	11-7	C A Murphy	6/4
2	221-22	Forpadydeplasterer	28	7	11-7	Thomas Cooper	13/2
3	363-42	Mahogany Blaze	20	7	11-7	N A Twiston-Davies	25/1
4	F6F1-3	Twist Magic	32	7	11-7	P F Nicholls	5/2
5	F3/2-1	Well Chief	20	10	11-7	D E Pipe	10/3

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Big Zeb: Jumping is certainly a worry with a couple of F’s on his card last year and an error that possibly cost him a win over Mster Minded at Punchestown festival last April. It is on the basis of that close second that he is favourite for this, because there isn’t too much else in his form to justify that position. He is clearly the best 2m chaser in Ireland but is unproven in Britain. He fell in the Champion Chase last year in his only start outside of Ireland. How good was his performance against Master Minded? Was Master Minded feeling the effects of his season? How does that run compare to Well Chief’s three weeks ago? Also, I don’t think soft ground will suit him, although all of these would probably prefer good. For me, Big Zeb is a very short price at 6/4 or 13/8.

Forpadydeplasterer: Las year’s Arkle winner has it to prove against the big boys. His one run this season wasn’t bad, but I don’t think that last year’s novices were great and I’d like to have seen him win on his seasonal debut at Down Royal. You could argue he is value at a price of 13/2 and with no obvious horse to make the running, he could try to lead all the way. So, he has possibilities, but too much to prove to be carrying my money.

Mahogany Blaze: Outsider of the race. He has competed at the top level but has no win since his novice days in April 08. Hard to see him doing what he has failed to do so far.

Twist Magic: Had a good season in 07/08 and looked a genuine Champion Chase contender but ran poorly and only finished 6th. He then won at the Punchestown festival, but was disappointing last year with a couple of falls and some below par efforts. His seasonal debut this year was promising, finishing 3rd giving lots of weight away at Exeter. He does seem to like Sandown (31F1) and has a definite chance if he’s back to the form he showed in winning this 2 years ago.

Well Chief: The top rated in the field and he beat Master Minded three weeks ago at Cheltenham. The doubts about Well Chief are the injury problems he has had. Since April 05, he was off for nearly 2 years, then won his comeback race, fell in the Champion Chase and was 3rd at Aintree. He was then off for another 2 years before running 2nd in the 08 Champion Chase and then winning on his reappearance 3 weeks ago. Can he put 2 wins together, with his brittle legs and now that he is 10? I think that apart from his run at Aintree and his early fall in the 07 Champion Chase, his form reads very well and at 100/30 I think he might be worth a chance that he can reproduce it again here.

In summary, Forpady has it to prove at this level. So too, to an extent, does Big Zeb and his jumping is a doubt. It is hard to know if Twist Magic will run like he did 2 years ago or like he did last season. Well Chief looks the best horse, but with his injury problems and age, can he win again off a 3 week break?

I think I will back Well Chief for this and I might lay Big Zeb. With doubts about his jumping against this field and with the fences to be jumped in the back straight at Sandown, I think 6/4 is too short about him.

Denman and other recent horse races

Some interesting races over the last week or so. Denman ran a great race last Saturday to hold off What A Friend and Barber’s Shop and the others and win his second Hennessy Gold Cup. This was a very impressive weight carrying performance, on soft ground giving lots of weight away to his rivals. The questions now of course are, is he back to his best? and can he win the Cheltenham Gold Cup again? Of course, if he is back to his best then he will win at Cheltanham. But as usual, I am sceptical. I will want to see another convincing performance before I wil be sure. The horse I did back, based on a 5 minute analysis of the race, Killyglen, was probably the biggest disappointment of the race. He looked to be going ok early on but was pulled up 4 out just when he should have been getting down to real business.

The Fighting Fifth hurlde at Newcastle was also interesting. Go Native was a surprise winner with Sublimity second. It’s hard to be sure of this form really, as the race was run at a very steady pace early on and developed into a bit of a 3 furlong sprint for the line. Maybe, Solwhit was least suited by this type of race and he remains interesting for the Champion hurdle or maybe another Aintree hurdle. Wahtever way you look at it though, this was a disappointing run from Binocular. He has a lot to prove now to be a serious Champion hurdle contender. The betting for that race is now wide open at 5/1 or 11//2 the field. At this stage, Celestial Halo is the one that interests me most.

Dunguib won again at Fairyhouse yesterday in impressive fashion. Today, the Racing Post are talking about a possible tilt at the Champion Hurdle. With the Champion looking so open it is easy to see where that talk comes from, but Phillip Fenton has said he thinks novices should stick with novices and 2011 will be time enough for a go at the Champion hurdle. And I think, basically, that is right. It would take an exceptional novice to win a Champion hurdle and good though he is, Dunguib is best sticking to trying prove himself a top novice first.

And today there was a notable performance from Captian Cee Bee in winning a good class novice chase at Naas. Captain Cee Bee won the Supreme Novice hurdle at Cheltenham in 2008 and had’nt raced before today for nearly 2 years. His debut win as a chaser was, therefore, a very encouraging effort. And it was no bad race, with Zaarito (third in a Cheltenham bumper) and An Cathaoir Mor among the beaten horses.

FIFA making it up as you go along

Some updates to yesterday’s post. Man City won and Chelsea lost last night, so City are now second favourites for the Carling Cup at 3.85 on Betfair. I backed them at 6.6 before the quarter-finals. The semis are in early January and I will wait til then before I do anything further.

I wonder does he wish he hadn't done it?

The Henry handball saga is not dead yet. Seems that the FAI were not best pleased at Sepp Blatter making such an issue, and such a joke, of the 33rd country proposal when that was a perpheral issue. They may well have a point there. First it seemed that FIFA would just pretend it had not happened, then they made an issue of the FAI request to be included somehow in South Africa 2010 and indicated that there would be goal umpires at those World Cup finals. Now it seems that proposal has been rejected in favour of further inquiry. They should just get on with implementing video adjudication, or at the very least testing it out in some competitions. Enough talk and inquiries, just do it!

Also, it seems that Henry will be called before some sort of disciplinary tribunal. While I am all for the retrospective trial and disciplining of players found to have cheated and got away with it, it needs to be done in a proper organised fashion. The rules and procedures need to be stated in advance and all incidents treated the same. It is no good just picking on isolated incidents, like Eduardo’s diving against Celtic and Henry’s handball, just because there was a media fuss. It needs to be done properly!

Finally on FIFA. I notice they have seeded England and not France. That is probably fair enough, as France only qualified through a play-off, but the justification for that decision smells a bit fishy. Apparently, FIFA decided to use the October rankings rather the November rankings as that gave a better view of the best teams in the competition. This is basically drawing up the rules to come up with the desired result. They should not be allow to just make it up as they go along. It should be clearly set out, before they know what teams have qualified, what the criteria for seeding is.

The Tiger Crash story continues to run too. No surprise there, but I will stick to my view that it is largely his own business. I am interested in sport rather than side issues like celebrity and gossip.  What’s the difference between a car and a golf ball?  Tiger can drive a golf ball 400 yards.

Umpiring at the World Cup

This is a relatively quiet time for sport in Ireland. I always hated playing in the cold and wet of winter. And I don’t much enjoy standing in the freezing cold watching matches. That said, I do remember some real good games of club football at this time of year. I am thinking of going down to Newbridge in the 90’s to see clashes between Baltinglass and Thomas Davis and between Eire Og and Erin’s Isle. Those were highlights but more often December was about togging out in the cold and the wet to finish out leagues.

Anyway, enough of that rambling. What is happening at the moment? Well, FIFA have rejected the FAI’s request to be added as a 33rd team in next year’s World Cup. And, proper order too. What a ridiculous suggestion and you have to say, typical of the FAI.  It’s one thing the FAI embarrassing themselves, but it reflects on the country as a whole. It makes us a bit of a laughing stock. People around the world must be saying ‘just get over it’.

FIFA have though signalled that they will introduce goal umpires for the World Cup. An idea taken from Gaelic Games! And Aussie Rules, but they probably took it from our games too. I have a bit of experience as an umpire. Maybe I will apply to FIFA for a job at the World Cup. Maybe, if we can’t be the 33rd country, we could do all the umpiring? At least the goal umpires is some acknowledgement from FIFA that something needs to be done. But why not TV replays? Platini, Blatter and co. are dead set against any sort of decisions by TV. Why is that? It seems they have just decided that we don’t do that sort of thing in soccer and that is that. Let’s see how the goal umpires work out, but my guess is that after the World Cup we will still be talking about the need for video adjudication.

Also, topical is Tiger Woods crashed his car. My only comment on that is that the circumstances of the crash is Tiger’s own business. He does not owe the general public any sort of explanation. He is the best golfer in the world, and a huge celebrity because of that. But he is entitled to his privacy.Luckily he was not badly injured.

Tonight the second pair of Carling Cup quarter-finals are on. I have bet on Man City winning the competition, so will be hoping they can beat the Arsenal second string that Wenger usually plays in this competition. CIty seem to have been taking this competition seriously, which is why I backed them.

Some Thoughts From Abroad

I write this full of the American spirit because I’ve drank more Jack Daniels then I probably should have and full of the Irish spirit because I am going home tomorrow. I’ve been over here for 4 weeks without seeing a drop of rain, while hearing and reading about deluges and floods back home. Still, weather is not everything. Home is family, home is a culture I’m comfortable in and home is the sport I love, national hunt racing, GAA and, ahem, English soccer. I’ve been away only a relatively short time but it is amazing how you lose touch. Last Tuesday, Liverpool played Debrecen with Champions League survival on the line. I didn’t even think about it until I got back to my hotel room about hours 6 hours after it was over. I could get no internet connection, so I shrugged and waited til the morning to get the result. That is not me. If I am at home, I would be going mad to know the score. And the club championships. I’ve lost out on those almost totally. Absence makes the heart forget?

Anyway, as we all know by now, Liverpool won but it was not enough. They are out of the Champions League and we will have to get exicted about the Europa Cup. And why not? We were happy enough with a UEFA Cup in 2001.

The France playoff and Henry handball issue has finally died. Anyone over here who knew about it was sympathetic. But talking to an Irishman, they would be, wouldn’t they? The calls for a replay, with government ministers and all getting involved, got to be a bit embarassing really. One of the principles of sport for me, alongside playing the game fairly, is accepting the officials decision, good or bad. Roy Keane was right when he said ‘what goes around, comes around’. We got decisions that went our way in the group, so we have to put up with it when one goes against us, even if the timing of it made it hard to take.  The reason I thought the FAI and players were right to make an issue of it, is that it is high time FIFA stopped pretending there is nothing wrong and introduced instant TV replays for important decisions, like they have in most other sports now, and also did something to retrospectively punish obvious cheats that are not caught during the match. Mainly I am referring to diving and feigning injury, but it could also include incidents like the Henry handball. FIFa have apparently called a meeting to discuss this and other matters. Maybe that is just more pretence or maybe it will lead to some real action.

The Hennessy is on this weeekend but I will not be posting a big race preview. I shall be busy finishing up here, saying adios and then flying home. Just look for a young (6 or 7-y-o) horse with winning form over 3m 1f+ and good recent form. The horses that fit the bill are Barber’s Shop, Killyglen and What A Friend. The Queen owns Babrber’s Shop and Alex Ferguson owns What A Friend, so that narrows it down to Killyglen. Fiver on the nose.  There are other good races too this weekend, like the Fighting Fifth hurdle, featuring Solwhit and Binocular and Fairyhouse, if that’s not flooded.

And let’s hope that Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell can keep up the blistering pace they have set so far in the World Cup of Golf. 14 under par is phenomenal scoring.  I really must go and pack now.